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MBIE releases short and long term employment outlook Back to News
19th January 2015 09:26pm
The Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment has released its six-monthly reports on the employment outlook over the short and medium-long terms.

Over the short term, at a national level:

  • Employment is forecast to grow by 2.2% or 50,680 FTEs between 2015 and 2016 and by 1.6% (37,830) between 2016 and 2017
  • The unemployment rate is forecast to fall to 5.3% by March quarter 2015, 5.1% by March quarter 2016 and further to 4.8% by March quarter 2017
  • Strong employment growth is forecast in the construction and utility industry
  • Demand for highly skilled occupations (mostly managers and professionals) will be higher than the overall employment growth, accounting for more than 56% of overall employment growth over the next 3 years
  • Opportunities for lower-skilled workers are forecast to account for about 29% of the employment growth over this period, with most opportunities in the food processing, retailing, accommodation, business services and construction industries.
The Ministry’s Medium to Long Term Employment Outlook: Looking Ahead to 2023 report offers more strategic insight into the employment landscape and informs MBIE's medium-long term policy advice relating to immigration policy and priority setting for tertiary education and industry training.

Key points at a National Level:

  • Employment is expected to increase by 240,300 over the 2013-18 period and by about 185,200 over the subsequent five years to 2023
  • This represents annual employment growth of about 2.1 per cent (or 48,000 on average) and about 1.5 per cent (or about 37,000 on average), respectively.
  • Employment outlook is based on average annual GDP growth of 3.0 per cent and 2.6 per cent over the 2013-18 and 2018-23 periods, respectively, based on current Treasury growth forecasts 
  • Strong employment growth in primary processing is forecast for certain manufacturing industries such as machinery and equipment, metal products and in construction-related activities. Service industries, including the health and cultural and personal services sectors will also experience modest to strong employment growth.
  • Employment growth will be strongest for highly-skilled occupations, including managers and professionals and is projected to account for about 60 per cent.
More information on other MBIE labour market and skills research reports are available online.

  MBIE releases short and long term employment outlook  
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